Geoff Hinton talking about neural networks (2007)

Saw this on youtube, G. E. Hinton on neural networks for machine learning, talk at google.

Detextify – Find latex symbols

This website (http://detexify.kirelabs.org/classify.html) is really useful if you don’t know the markup/command for the LaTex symbol you want to write. Provided you are able to draw it.

Detexify

The website talks about the software learning how to recognise the symbols so I guess it is using some neural network scheme.

Latex Poster/ Modelling Thermal Conductivity

Norman Gray and Graeme Stewart at Glasgow have provided useful examples to make posters using Latex.

I used these to make a tex file, which produced a poster using pdflatex. Should also be possible using latex command if you include graphics as eps rather than pdf. Make sure if you convert graphics to pdf or ps that you have a bounding box (use pstoeps command for example), otherwise your poster will break horribly. It was important to convert from eps to pdf using the epstopdf command rather that ps2pdf.

This saved me time by allowing me to use the equations from latex directly, and allowed me to include my graphs at high resolution – it doesn’t make sense to convert to jpg or other bit map to include in a powerpoint presentation file.

You can find the poster here: Poster (best viewed with xpdf)
and the latex file to make it here: Poster source file

Thanks to the people who showed an interest in the poster. I wish I had taken picture at the conference to make this post more dynamic!

You can also see this poster on my website http://mathewpeet.org/publications/posters/

Flu Pandemic, How worried should we be?

Just for a little fun, a model was made for the number of flu cases in the various countries which are reporting data. A neural network was trained which predicts the amount of flu cases given the number of cases the day before. GDP(PPP), size of population and population density were also included as inputs. Obviously living in the UK it is more important to consider the cases in UK first.

Confirmed Flu cases in UK

Confirmed Flu cases in UK

Confirmed cases of flu in Mexico

Confirmed cases of flu in Mexico

Confirmed Flu cases in USA

Confirmed Flu cases in USA

Confirmed flu cases in Canada

Confirmed flu cases in Canada

Here are the predictions for todays flu cases in the various countries, WHO will usually release these data at around 6pm-8pm UK time, so we should be able to see how good is the prediction in about 5 hours time.

Country Predicted Cases Uncertainity in prediction
NewZealand 6 1
Ireland 1 1
CostaRica 1 1
Denmark 1 1
ElSalvador 2 1
HongKong 1 1
Israel 7 1
Switzerland 2 1
Austria 1 1
Portugal 1 1
Netherlands 3 1
Canada 232 23
Colombia 3 1
Spain 101 5
Korea 4 1
Italy 7 1
UK 43 2
France 7 1
Germany 14 1
Mexico 1419 155
US 1207 544
Guatemala 3 2
Sweden 1 1
Poland 2 1

Here are the predictions using the same data, for tomorrow cases (using the number predicted above).

Country Predicted Cases Uncertainity in prediction
NewZealand 6 1
Ireland 2 1
CostaRica 0 1
Denmark 2 1
ElSalvador 2 2
HongKong 2 1
Israel 7 1
Switzerland 2 1
Austria 2 1
Portugal 1 1
Netherlands 4 1
Canada 253 61
Colombia 5 1
Spain 127 8
Korea 6 1
Italy 10 1
UK 57 2
France 10 1
Germany 20 1
Mexico 1910 748
US 1520 643
Guatemala 4 2
Sweden 2 1
Poland 3 1

The model should be improved as more data can be included, as the outbreak proceeds. It is planned to train using the days since the start of reporting, and also the level of Alert set by the WHO. The model shows the number of cases increasing approximately linearly in most cases.