Flu Pandemic, How worried should we be?

Just for a little fun, a model was made for the number of flu cases in the various countries which are reporting data. A neural network was trained which predicts the amount of flu cases given the number of cases the day before. GDP(PPP), size of population and population density were also included as inputs. Obviously living in the UK it is more important to consider the cases in UK first.

Confirmed Flu cases in UK

Confirmed Flu cases in UK

Confirmed cases of flu in Mexico

Confirmed cases of flu in Mexico

Confirmed Flu cases in USA

Confirmed Flu cases in USA

Confirmed flu cases in Canada

Confirmed flu cases in Canada

Here are the predictions for todays flu cases in the various countries, WHO will usually release these data at around 6pm-8pm UK time, so we should be able to see how good is the prediction in about 5 hours time.

Country Predicted Cases Uncertainity in prediction
NewZealand 6 1
Ireland 1 1
CostaRica 1 1
Denmark 1 1
ElSalvador 2 1
HongKong 1 1
Israel 7 1
Switzerland 2 1
Austria 1 1
Portugal 1 1
Netherlands 3 1
Canada 232 23
Colombia 3 1
Spain 101 5
Korea 4 1
Italy 7 1
UK 43 2
France 7 1
Germany 14 1
Mexico 1419 155
US 1207 544
Guatemala 3 2
Sweden 1 1
Poland 2 1

Here are the predictions using the same data, for tomorrow cases (using the number predicted above).

Country Predicted Cases Uncertainity in prediction
NewZealand 6 1
Ireland 2 1
CostaRica 0 1
Denmark 2 1
ElSalvador 2 2
HongKong 2 1
Israel 7 1
Switzerland 2 1
Austria 2 1
Portugal 1 1
Netherlands 4 1
Canada 253 61
Colombia 5 1
Spain 127 8
Korea 6 1
Italy 10 1
UK 57 2
France 10 1
Germany 20 1
Mexico 1910 748
US 1520 643
Guatemala 4 2
Sweden 2 1
Poland 3 1

The model should be improved as more data can be included, as the outbreak proceeds. It is planned to train using the days since the start of reporting, and also the level of Alert set by the WHO. The model shows the number of cases increasing approximately linearly in most cases.

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2 Responses

  1. It is good to see, that I am not the only “crazy person” that has an excel sheet with the data and tries to make sense out of it.

  2. lol…
    It seems not working very well with larger numbers. Mexico, Germany, Colombia, Spain, UK and France was not spotted on for today.

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